Digital vs. Physical: Cash Resists Extinction, Halloween Roars, and India Clicks

Good morning, ! This week we’re diving into the Halloween market, the use of cash in today’s digital consumer world, India’s eCommerce market and Kimberly Clark’s $48B consumer health buyout

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DATA DIVE

America’s Most Democratic Holiday

97% of U.S. consumers celebrated Halloween 2024, topping even Christmas and Valentine’s Day in participation. Yet average spending was only $114.50 — proving this isn’t a holiday for luxury goods but for mass engagement. The secret? Micro-purchases. Think candy, costumes, and décor — small transactions that scale into a $13.1B market. Over the past decade, total Halloween spending has nearly doubled, fueled by earlier shopping (49% start before October) and social-media-fueled creativity. It’s not how much people spend — it’s how many people spend. For brands, Halloween is a marketing sandbox: a rare moment when volume beats value and participation drives profit.

Read the Full Report HERE

TREND OF THE WEEK

Cash’s Last Stand

Even as digital payments conquer the globe, cash refuses to die quietly. Worldpay data shows that in countries like Nigeria, Philippines, and Mexico, physical currency still dominates daily life. Nigeria’s cash share at 99% in 2014 is projected to drop to 32% by 2030—a decline, yes, but still massive in a mobile-money era. Cultural habits and trust issues in tech explain the holdout: in Japan and Germany, cash signals control and privacy, not resistance.
The bigger picture: cash use is shrinking everywhere, but it’s not vanishing. For millions, going cashless isn’t about technology—it’s about trust, security, and cultural comfort. Cash, it seems, is the analog hill humanity refuses to die on. (More)

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ECOMMERCE

India’s eCommerce: Still in Beta, But Scaling Fast

India’s e-commerce market ranks #8 globally, but only 40% of its population shops online. Translation: there's a whole lot of digital shelf space left to fill. With a CAGR of 11.8% in the number of annual online shoppers, this is less a mature marketplace and more a prequel — and global tech giants are already making early bets. Mobile commerce accounts for 80% of online sales, thanks to spotty broadband and smartphone ubiquity. Digital wallets lead as the preferred payment method, while cross-border taxes are rising to defend local players. And don’t sleep on the government’s plan for a national, open-source platform to keep platforms like Amazon.in from becoming too dominant. In short: 1.4B people, one regulation-heavy playing field, and a race to win over 850 million first-time buyers. (More)

DEAL OF THE WEEK

Kimberly-Clark’s $48.7B Consumer Health Bet

Kimberly-Clark is pivoting big into consumer health, acquiring Johnson & Johnson’s spinout Kenvue in a $48.7B all-stock deal. The merger will create a $32B revenue conglomerate housing Huggies, Kleenex, Tylenol, and Neutrogena under one roof.

It’s also a roll of the dice. Kenvue’s leading asset, Tylenol, is under fire amid FDA labeling petitions and politically charged autism claims. Litigation over talc products outside North America further muddies the waters. Kimberly-Clark, however, sees this as a generational opportunity, citing exhaustive due diligence with top legal and scientific advisors.

Kenvue shareholders will receive $3.50 per share in cash and 0.14625 KMB shares, valuing the equity at $21.01 per share, a 15% premium over last week’s close. The market’s reaction? Kenvue stock popped 15%, while Kimberly-Clark dropped 13%.

Why it matters: Kimberly-Clark is exiting its “shrink-to-grow” era and diving headfirst into a complex integration that brings scale—but also risk. With consumer health facing competitive pressures, regulatory scrutiny, and activist oversight, this deal could reshape the playbook for sector consolidation. (More)

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BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE GIFT CARD CAFE

Stored Value Goes Strategic: How AI is Upgrading the Gift Card Game

Gift cards are quietly evolving from stocking stuffers to strategic fintech tools. New research from Blackhawk Network reveals that gift cards now account for 39% of holiday budgets, up from 27% last year—a 12-point jump that signals a deeper behavioral shift.

This is no longer about convenience. In a high-inflation, low-certainty environment, gift cards are becoming instruments of budgeting, embedded finance, and loyalty. Consumers, especially younger ones, are using them not just for gifting but for cost control, rewards stacking, and digital wallet integration. The data backs it: 80% of Americans bought gift cards in the past year, with 47% opting for digital versions, and a growing share planning to buy eGifts in 2025. What’s more, AI is personalizing the experience. Among Gen Z and Millennials, 70% use AI tools to optimize gift selection, making this a key battleground for fintech engagement and lifetime value capture.

Bottom line: As the lines blur between payment, gifting, and budgeting, stored value becomes a platform. For fintechs, gift cards are no longer seasonal. They’re strategic. (More)

CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

From Likes to Lunch Meat

Social media isn’t just selling style anymore — it’s selling staples. New data from Capgemini show groceries (39% occasional, 26% frequent) and apparel (44% occasional, 24% frequent) dominating purchases on social platforms. What used to be the domain of impulse buys and influencer fits is now a full-blown digital grocery aisle.

The shift signals trust and habit: consumers now buy toothpaste and T-shirts from the same feed they scroll for memes. Meanwhile, meal kits and home improvement goods lag, weighed down by price and planning.

The punchline: social commerce has crossed from curiosity to core utility. For brands, the challenge isn’t awareness — it’s being in the cart before the consumer even realizes they’re shopping. (More)

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