Black Friday, Red Flags: Why Consumers Are Spending Differently This Year

Good morning, ! This week we’re diving into the Black Friday consumer market, how consumers are navigating higher food prices, event based shopping expectations, and Anta Sports eyeing a shocking bid for Puma.  

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DATA DIVE

Black Friday Is Still Booming—But It's Not About Discounts Anymore

Forget the doorbusters—Black Friday has quietly evolved into a multi-week, omni-channel ritual of lifestyle spending, personalization, and nostalgia-fueled discovery. Total U.S. spending is on track to hit $10.8B in 2024 and $11.8B by 2025, doubling since 2017 with an 11.3% CAGR. This isn’t just a retail event—it’s an economic anchor for Q4.

Gen Z leads the spending surge, not just chasing deals but buying into moments: compact digital cameras (+2,345%), embossing stamps (+1,119%), and Pilates reformers (+990%) aren’t flukes—they’re signals. Consumers are curating identity, not just shopping carts. Meanwhile, the top conversion channel isn’t TikTok or TV—it’s email (59.2%), a nod to the power of first-party data and CRM precision.

For investors, this spells a strategic shift. Performance will hinge less on price cuts and more on product relevance, storytelling, and operational agility. Winners will be those who blend nostalgia, utility, and emotional resonance—while optimizing every pixel of the digital shelf.

Bottom line: Black Friday isn’t dying. It’s maturing—and the spending clock now starts weeks before Thanksgiving.

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TREND OF THE WEEK

Holiday Shopping Splits the Crowd

Consumers are sending a mixed—but strategically useful—signal heading into the holidays. Black Friday remains the strongest in-store draw, with 45% of shoppers saying they’ll definitely or possibly visit stores. That’s not a return to 2019, but it’s a clear stabilization: a reliable bloc of deal-hunters still values the immediacy of in-person shopping. Thanksgiving Day, meanwhile, continues its long retreat. Only 14% say they’ll definitely shop in stores, while 41% flat-out refuse—a decisive cultural shift toward protecting the holiday and away from door-crashing before dessert.

The real battleground? Promotions. Nearly half of consumers expect more deals this year, underscoring a deeply value-driven mindset shaped by economic uncertainty and years of heavier discounting. Retailers that lean into targeted promotions, loyalty incentives, and thoughtful Black Friday execution stand to capture the most momentum in a season defined by selective store visits and high deal sensitivity. (More)

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ECOMMERCE

Packaging Panic: eCommerce’s Dirty Secret

Sustainability isn’t just on the eCommerce roadmap—it’s driving the truck. 85% of eCommerce leaders call it a business priority, yet oversized boxes and last-mile emissions are still running wild. While 70% offer greener delivery and 60% use sustainable packaging, most companies are still in the “look busy” phase. Big players get the glory—91% of large firms say they care (and can actually afford to act). Small biz? Not so much. Packaging remains the carbon punchline, with solutions like returnable formats and 3D-printed containers stuck in R&D limbo. Consumers aren’t blind: 35% abandon carts over sustainability issues. That sound? It’s them walking to a greener competitor. (More)

DEAL OF THE WEEK

Prada Gets Loud: Versace Joins the Family

Minimalism meets maximalism in the Italian fashion merger of the year. Prada has acquired Versace for €1.375B ($1.51B), scooping up the iconic brand after Capri Holdings’ failed sale to Tapestry. Lorenzo Bertelli—Prada heir, marketing czar, and sustainability chief—will chair the brand, aiming to revive Versace’s post-pandemic slump with in-house manufacturing muscle and a creative reboot led by Dario Vitale, formerly of Miu Miu. The deal also helps Capri pay down $645M in losses, marking a strategic pivot back to Kors and Choo. It’s Prada’s largest deal ever, and the start of its broader push to challenge the LVMH-Kering-Richemont trifecta. (More)

BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE GIFT CARD CAFE

God Save the Gift

In a season shaped by tight budgets and cautious baskets, one gift has quietly become the MVP: the gift card. Tied for first place with clothing (39%), vouchers/gift cards top the UK consumer wishlist for Christmas 2025. Why? They tick every box: flexibility, predictability, and zero risk of being re-gifted. Amid rising costs for Christmas dinner, shoppers are leaning into affordable, practical gifting—with toiletry gift packs and gift cards driving growth in the Gifting & Hampers category (+11.7% value). For brands, this is the moment to treat gift cards like a product category, not an afterthought. (More)

CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

Waste Less, Spend Smarter: How Shoppers Are Battling Food Inflation

Consumers aren’t just cutting back—they’re recalibrating. In the face of elevated food prices, 38% of U.S. shoppers are turning to the least disruptive inflation hack: wasting less. That makes at-home food waste reduction the most popular cost-saving tactic—beating out store-brand swaps (28%) and cutting purchases to essentials (27%).

The data suggests that consumers are prioritizing value preservation over deprivation. Instead of dramatically changing what they eat, they’re adjusting how they buy and use it. Lower-cost ingredient substitutions (26%) and cheaper meats (23%) also rank high, but only 20% of shoppers report outright buying less than they want—underscoring the resilience of food demand even under pressure.

Why it matters: Brands that can support consumers in stretching their budgets—think portionable formats, meal-planning content, or waste-reduction tools—will win favor without racing to the bottom on price. Inflation may be driving belt-tightening, but consumers are seeking smart fixes, not sacrifice. (More)

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