Beyond Discounts: The Forces Driving Record Spend

Yet, the data reveals a retail environment that is far more resilient and dynamic than headlines might suggest. From the explosive rise of niche product categories to the sustained expansion of total spend, consumers are demonstrating both adaptability and intentionality in how they engage with the year’s biggest retail moment. What was once a single transactional event has now evolved into a multi-week, omnichannel cycle powered by personalization, digitally enabled discovery, and a growing appetite for experiential and identity-based consumption.

For investors, this transition represents a meaningful reset in where value is being created across the retail ecosystem. Younger generations are shaping trends at unprecedented speed, owned digital channels are proving more influential than paid media, and demand is consolidating around product categories that blend lifestyle relevance, innovation, and emotional resonance. The data featured in this report highlights the most critical drivers shaping Black Friday performance today—and the opportunity set emerging for 2025 and beyond. The next phase of retail will reward operators who execute with precision, agility, and deep understanding of the motivations behind the modern shopper.

The Surprising Breakout Categories Defining 2024 Consumer Demand

This year’s early Black Friday momentum is being shaped by an unexpected mix of nostalgia, creativity, and personal wellness—revealing a consumer landscape that is evolving faster than many retailers anticipated. The Shopify dataset shows dramatic year-over-year order growth across several niche product segments, led by a stunning +2,345% surge in compact digital camera purchases. 

While smartphones have long dominated casual photography, the resurgence of dedicated point-and-shoot devices highlights a powerful shift toward authenticity and creativity. Gen Z consumers in particular are driving a return to tactile, analog-adjacent experiences—echoing the revival of film cameras, vinyl records, and retro tech. Investors should note that categories once considered commoditized or obsolete are now regaining cultural relevance, presenting opportunity for specialty retailers and lifestyle brands.

Beyond photography, the chart underscores the rise of micro-hobbies, home-based crafting, and wellness-driven spending. Products such as embossing stamps (+1,119%) and Pilates reformers (+990%) reflect a broader trend toward experiential consumption, as consumers prioritize activities that foster creativity, health, and self-improvement. 

Meanwhile, the 799% spike in handheld players and recorders signals continued appetite for nostalgic entertainment formats—a reminder that emotional connection is a powerful revenue driver even in an inflation-pressured environment. For investors tracking holiday strategy, this emerging preference for distinct and identity-led purchases over generic discounts offers a roadmap for category winners in a crowded retail season.

Key Takeaways from Chart

• Nostalgia is now a growth engine, with compact digital cameras and handheld media devices leading demand—creating opportunities for brands positioned around vintage-inspired or limited-edition product drops.

• Creative hobbies and personalization tools are accelerating, shown by embossing stamps’ triple-digit growth; this aligns with the expansion of maker marketplaces and DIY-oriented social content.

• Home fitness remains resilient despite normalization post-pandemic, as evidenced by Pilates reformers’ 990% growth—signaling continued consumer willingness to invest in premium wellness equipment.

• Footwear and travel-adjacent categories (tennis shoes +452%, beach bags +387%) indicate renewed mobility and lifestyle optimism heading into 2025.

• Low-ticket discretionary categories like party games (+306%) suggest consumers are prioritizing shared experiences and at-home entertainment as cost-effective social alternatives.

• Bird feeders (+98%), while the smallest growth category listed, reinforces sustained demand for outdoor and nature-oriented products introduced during the pandemic.

• Strategic implication for investors: Retailers with curated assortments, storytelling-driven product marketing, and alignment to community culture are positioned to capture disproportionate share this season versus mass-merchandise discounting alone.

Black Friday Spending Shows Resilient Multi-Year Growth Despite Economic Volatility

Black Friday spending has proven remarkably resilient over the past eight years, defying inflation pressures, tightening household budgets, and shifting channel dynamics. According to the chart, consumer spending has nearly doubled since 2017, rising from $5.0B to a projected $11.8B in 2025. Even with fluctuations during the pandemic and subsequent recovery cycles, the trend line shows a steady upward trajectory averaging 11.3% growth—a powerful signal of sustained consumer appetite for major promotional events. 

This reliability underscores Black Friday’s evolution from a single-day doorbuster event into a multi-week omnichannel shopping season fueled by digital expectations and increasingly sophisticated discounting strategies.

What is especially important for investors is the stability of this growth curve. While 2021 saw a slight dip to $8.9B, spending rebounded strongly in 2022 and beyond, suggesting that temporary macro headwinds—such as supply chain disruption and cautious post-stimulus consumption—did not alter the long-term structural demand for promotional shopping. 

As consumers adapt to deal-hunting behavior and retailers shift toward more data-driven pricing, Black Friday now represents a predictable anchor for Q4 revenue performance. With 2024 tracking toward $10.8B and early forecasts showing $11.8B for 2025, leading retailers, marketplaces, and fintech platforms are well positioned to benefit from more disciplined promotional calendars, accelerated online adoption, and increased basket consolidation across categories.

Key Takeaways from Chart

• Black Friday spending nearly doubled since 2017, climbing from $5.0B to a projected $11.8B in 2025—highlighting long-term consumer durability.

• Average annual growth rate of 11.3% establishes Black Friday as a structurally reliable revenue driver for retailers and brands.

• Minor pullback in 2021 did not disrupt the upward trend, demonstrating event resilience across supply chain shocks and consumption slowdowns.

• Omnichannel shopping behavior is becoming dominant, enabling broader participation and smoothing volatility compared to pre-2020 store-centric events.

• Retailers with optimized inventory and dynamic discounting strategies are outperforming, supported by data-led personalized promotions.

• Investors should watch companies with BNPL, digital wallet adoption, and advanced logistics, as these infrastructure components increasingly power peak-season conversion.

• Forward-looking implication: Expect continued expansion of promotional windows and earlier demand pull-forward, intensifying competition for wallet share and strengthening Q4 revenue concentration.

Email Still Reigns: The Most Influential Marketing Channels Driving Black Friday Purchases

Despite the explosive growth of social commerce and creator-led product discovery, traditional digital channels continue to anchor Black Friday shopping behavior. The chart shows that email offers influence purchasing decisions more than any other channel, impacting 59.2% of shoppers—significantly higher than social media ads (39.4%) and search engine advertising (38.6%). 

Email’s dominance reflects its unique ability to deliver personalized promotions tied to loyalty data, past purchases, and segmented discount strategies that drive urgency and conversion. For retailers navigating tighter customer acquisition costs and reduced platform tracking visibility, email remains a high-ROI asset in the marketing stack, proving that owned audience channels are outperforming pay-to-play systems during peak demand cycles.

Interestingly, the gap between the top channels and influencer recommendations—at only 13.5%—tells a very different story than the year-round buzz around creator economics. While influencers remain essential for brand awareness and trend seeding, they appear to be much less effective in the final decision-making moment when price sensitivity and deal specificity dominate. 

TV and radio ads, despite perceptions of decline, still sway 35.2% of shoppers, showing that traditional mass reach retains power during major retail events. For investors, the data highlights a clear competitive advantage for retailers who balance identity-driven discovery with conversion-focused lifecycle marketing—particularly those optimizing first-party data, automation, and personalization strategies.

Key Takeaways from Chart

• Email is the strongest conversion driver, influencing 59.2% of Black Friday purchases—outperforming all other marketing types by a double-digit margin.

• Owned channels matter more than ever, as retailers continue to prioritize lower-cost, high-precision communication over increasingly expensive paid ad channels.

• Social media and search ads remain critical mid-funnel tools, driving awareness and product discovery but not necessarily final conversion.

• Influencer impact is significantly lower during deal-driven periods (13.5%), indicating consumers shift toward value and verification rather than inspiration under promotional conditions.

• TV and radio still play a meaningful role (35.2%), particularly for large retailers and mass-market categories that require broad reach.

• Strategic implication for investors: Businesses with strong CRM infrastructure, loyalty programs, and email automation pipelines are positioned to outperform competitors reliant solely on performance marketing.

• Future opportunity: Expect increased investment in first-party data ecosystems, AI-driven offer personalization, and cross-channel orchestration to maximize conversion efficiency.

Generational Spending Patterns Reveal Diverging Priorities for Black Friday Participation

Black Friday remains a highly influential retail event, but different generations approach it with distinct motivations and spending behaviors, shaping demand patterns across categories and channels. The chart reveals that Gen Z is the most aggressive participant, with 45% reporting they buy more during Black Friday compared to the rest of the year—outpacing Millennials (42%) and Gen X (43%). 

For Gen Z, Black Friday represents not only a deal opportunity but also a cultural moment driven by social trends, limited releases, and digital-first shopping experiences. Their willingness to spend more reflects both a higher appetite for discretionary goods and an expectation of promotional pricing as a baseline rather than an exception. Millennials, while slightly more conservative, still show strong engagement, with 39% buying the same amount throughout the year—suggesting more predictable, planned shopping behavior tied to household needs and budget structure.

The data shows a sharp contrast with Baby Boomers, where only 23% report buying more during Black Friday and 27% do not participate at all, the highest non-engagement of any group. This signals a continuing generational shift in where peak retail demand is concentrated, with younger consumers driving growth in impulse categories, online channels, and trend-led purchases, while older consumers remain more selective and value-driven. 

For investors, these differences highlight the importance of demographic segmentation in merchandising, promotional strategy, and marketing mix allocation. Retailers that lean into youth-driven influence cycles, experiential retail, and omnichannel convenience are likely to outperform, while those dependent on legacy customer bases may see slower seasonal acceleration.

Key Takeaways from Chart

• Gen Z leads Black Friday spending intensity, with 45% buying more during the event than usual—indicating strong responsiveness to promotions, exclusives, and social-led product discovery.

• Millennials remain a stable spending cohort, balancing planned purchases and household needs, with 39% buying the same amount year-round and 42% buying more during Black Friday.

• Gen X shows significant participation but greater caution, with smaller proportions reporting increased spending and higher shares buying less or not at all.

• Baby Boomers are least engaged, with 27% not participating in Black Friday and only 23% spending more—representing lower opportunity for aggressive promotional targeting.

• Implication for retailers: Marketing personalization should reflect generational incentives—value-based messaging for older shoppers vs. scarcity, trend, and social proof for younger demographics.

• Category strategy insight: Younger cohorts disproportionately drive growth in tech, apparel, accessories, and experiential goods, while older cohorts remain anchored in practical, necessity-based purchases.

• Investor signal: Businesses positioned toward Gen Z and Millennial digital spending behaviors may capture superior seasonal revenue growth and higher customer lifetime value.

Electronics, Apparel, and Footwear Set the Pace for 2025 E-Commerce Demand Priorities

The 2025 e-commerce landscape is shaping up around categories that blend utility, lifestyle expression, and rapid innovation. According to the chart, electronics remain the dominant online purchase category, with 37% of consumers prioritizing tech products—underscoring the continued acceleration of device upgrades, smart home adoption, and AI-enabled personal technology. Clothing (32%) and footwear (26%) follow closely, reinforcing apparel’s consistent strength as an online purchasing driver and signaling that fashion-driven self-expression is still central to digital retail. 

As fast-turn inventory cycles and personalization tools expand, these segments are poised to benefit from both repeat purchase behavior and broader margin flexibility, making them particularly attractive for investors and omnichannel operators seeking scalable growth.

Beyond the top three categories, the middle of the chart offers insight into evolving lifestyle and household priorities. Home furnishings (23%) and toys or games (22%) highlight increased spending on home environment upgrades and family-based entertainment—trends that have sustained momentum since the pandemic. 

Meanwhile, cosmetics & beauty, sport & hobby items, and handmade/DIY products each show meaningful demand concentration, pointing to consumers continuing to invest in wellness, personalization, and experiential creativity. The presence of household essentials at 16% indicates that while practical necessities remain part of online baskets, discretionary categories are expected to capture the most value and differentiation. For investors, this segmentation suggests strong opportunities across technology, lifestyle brands, and experience-led product ecosystems, while commoditized essentials face margin pressure without brand or service differentiation.

Key Insights from Chart

• Electronics lead 2025 e-commerce intent at 37%, supported by new upgrade cycles, smart home tech, and AI-enabled personal devices.

• Apparel and footwear demand remains resilient, indicating fashion will continue to drive conversion for digital-first retail formats.

• Home and family living categories remain strong, signaling ongoing investment into the home as both a functional and emotional spending center.

• Beauty, hobbies, and DIY categories show sustained personalization and creativity trends, fostering opportunity for niche and community-based brands.

• Household products rank lowest (16%), highlighting necessary goods as less influenced by online preference and more prone to commoditization.

• Strategic implication for retailers: Product storytelling, personalization, and social influence will be critical differentiators in top categories, while essentials require value-plus convenience positioning.

• Investor perspective: Companies with strong exposure to tech, apparel, beauty, home, and recreation are positioned to capture the majority of discretionary wallet share in 2025.

• Forward-looking insight: Expect intensified competition in electronics and apparel, with rising opportunities for premium and curated experiences across wellness, home, and entertainment ecosystems.

Conclusion

The patterns emerging from Black Friday 2024 make one truth clear: the consumer economy is alive with momentum, but the sources of growth are shifting rapidly. Category winners are no longer defined solely by price or scale but by differentiation, community resonance, and technical sophistication in how demand is captured and converted. Generational behavior gaps are widening, digital influence channels are evolving, and discretionary spending continues to migrate into product areas tied to self-expression, wellbeing, and home-centered living. At the same time, the reliability of Black Friday’s long-term spending trajectory provides a steady foundation that rewards strategic investment in technology, logistics, and data-driven marketing.

Looking ahead to 2025, investors should watch for continued acceleration in electronics, apparel, and recreation-driven categories, alongside new growth opportunities in personalization-enabled products and omnichannel experience ecosystems. As promotional intensity increases and consumer expectations rise, competitive advantage will belong to retail platforms capable of merging insight with execution—meeting customers where they are, and predicting where they will go next. Those positioned to align both generational demand and operational discipline stand to capture outsize returns in the next phase of the retail cycle.

Sources & References

Shopify. BFCM Trends. https://www.shopify.com/blog/bfcm-trends

Resourcera. Black Friday Stats. https://resourcera.com/data/retail/black-friday-sales-statistics/

Nationwide. Black Curbs in Consumer Spending. https://www.nationwide.co.uk/media/news/nationwide-predicts-over-12-million-transactions-on-black-friday-despite-curbs-in-consumer-spending

Hostinger. Black Friday statistics. https://www.hostinger.com/tutorials/black-friday-statistics

DHL. 2025 ecommerce insights. https://www.dhl.com/global-en/microsites/ec/ecommerce-insights/insights/reports/2025-black-friday-trends.html

Connexity. Top retail and consumer trends shaping black Friday. https://www.connexity.com/insights/top-retail-and-consumer-trends-shaping-black-friday-cyber-monday-and-christmas-2025/