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- The Whole Truth Raises $51M, Online Car Sales Jump 1,500%, and Consumers Trade Down
The Whole Truth Raises $51M, Online Car Sales Jump 1,500%, and Consumers Trade Down
Clean-label food secures $51M and Valentine’s spending hits $29.1B, while structural inflation forces shoppers to value over loyalty.
Good morning, ! This week we’re diving into how rising price pressures are reshaping consumer behavior, shifting shoppers toward trading down rather than cutting back altogether. The Whole Truth Raises $51M in series D funding, Online car buying is going mainstream, and the battle for customer data is on.
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TREND TO WATCH
Trading Down Is Sticking
What started as an inflation reflex is now a habit. New data shows consumers aren’t retreating from spending — they’re trading down. Cheaper private-label and low-cost brands continue to gain share, even as headline inflation cools. Comfort with store brands has risen, and willingness to pay purely for a name has fallen.
The behavior extends beyond brands. Roughly half of consumers are buying cheaper substitute products, prioritizing shelf life and functionality over premium cues. At the same time, many shoppers are managing budgets by purchasing smaller quantities, spreading spend across more trips rather than cutting categories outright.
Bottom line: This is no longer temporary belt-tightening. Value-driven shopping is becoming structural. Brands and retailers that win will focus less on price theatrics and more on credible value, right-sized formats, and private-label strength. (More)
ECOMMERCE
Click, Buy, Vroom
Buying a car online is finally going mainstream, just a decade behind furniture and fridges. New-car e-commerce penetration is projected to jump from near-zero in 2020 to 7% in the US, 8% in Europe, and 10% in China by 2025. That’s 1,300%–1,500% growth—without even touching the 2035 upside.
What’s driving it? Tesla’s direct model, weaker dealer laws in Europe, and China’s e-commerce appetite. But the real goldmine here is data: online sales will let automakers track preferences, bounce rates, and pricing sensitivity like never before.
Still, OEMs and dealers are in a tug-of-war over who owns the customer relationship—and the CRM. Whoever figures out the digital handshake first stands to eat the most margin. (More)
DEAL OF THE WEEK
The Whole Truth Raises $51M to Scale Its Clean-Label Play
Clean-label food startup The Whole Truth just closed a $51M Series D led by Sofina and Sauce.vc, with support from Peak XV Partners, Rainmatter Health, and Ayra Ventures. The round includes both primary and secondary capital, giving early backers some liquidity while fueling the company’s next growth chapter.
Founded by a Unilever alum, Shashank Mehta, the D2C brand has built momentum in India’s emerging better-for-you food segment with a portfolio spanning protein bars, powders, nut butters, and chocolates. Revenue has reportedly tripled since its Series C in early 2025—a growth rate that signals real traction in a category long plagued by sugar-coated claims and vague labeling.
With fresh capital, The Whole Truth is investing in in-house manufacturing, working capital, and systems ahead of a potential IPO. While the clean-label narrative isn’t new, the brand’s vertical integration and transparency-first marketing continue to resonate with health-conscious consumers across urban India.
Why it matters: The deal reinforces investor appetite for premium health food plays in emerging markets, especially brands with strong DTC DNA and category-level trust. The Whole Truth’s roadmap—scaling ops, improving margins, and eyeing public markets—mirrors the trajectory of earlier natural food success stories in the West. The exit runway is officially open. (More)
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
Consumers Stabilize, Not Splurge
Cooling inflation and easing monetary policy are changing consumer behavior at the margin, not unlocking a spending boom. The chart shows CPI steadily drifting lower through 2024 into 2025, while the Fed funds rate peaks and then gradually declines into late 2025. That combination matters psychologically. Households are feeling less squeezed, but not suddenly confident.
For food and essential consumer categories, this reinforces defensive resilience. Demand remains steady because consumption is non discretionary, but shoppers stay disciplined. Slowing inflation reduces the urgency to trade down aggressively, yet elevated price levels keep value orientation front and center. Consumers are optimizing baskets rather than expanding them.
The Fed’s late 2025 rate cuts signal a pivot away from restrictive policy, but the cautious, data dependent tone keeps expectations anchored. Consumers are responding similarly. Spending patterns suggest normalization, not reacceleration. Modest GDP growth expectations and lingering price pressure encourage planning, budgeting, and selectivity rather than impulse.
Why it matters: In this environment, brands win less by betting on volume spikes and more by reinforcing trust, availability, and value. Stability favors operators with pricing discipline, efficient supply chains, and exposure to everyday consumption rather than discretionary upside chasing. (More)
Gift Cards Ride Valentine’s Expansion
Valentine’s Day spending is set to reach a record $29.1B, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics, with buyers spending roughly $200 per person across significant others, friends, pets, and coworkers. Growth is being driven by middle and high income consumers expanding who they gift, not just how much they spend. About one third of shoppers plan to buy for friends, while pet gifting is up 21% year over year, with per pet spend also rising.
This broader gifting circle matters for gift cards. As occasions extend beyond romantic partners to coworkers, friends, and pets, shoppers favor low friction, socially safe options that still feel thoughtful. Candy, cards, and flowers remain the top categories, but gift cards quietly solve the same need at scale, especially for non intimate relationships where personalization risk is higher.
Why it matters: Valentine’s is no longer a narrow, couple centric event. It is becoming a multi recipient spending moment. Gift cards are structurally well positioned to capture this expansion, benefiting from higher participation, wider use cases, and predictable ticket sizes without relying on discretionary splurges. (More)
PUBLISHER PODCAST
No Off Button: He Built North America's Largest AI Conference (& Had A Winning Exit)
Champions don’t quit when the plan breaks—they adapt. No Off Button is Aram’s publisher-led podcast honoring founders, executives, and creators who don’t have an off switch. Each episode spotlights operators who keep building through pivots, pressure, and imperfect conditions.
This week’s guest is Michael Weiss, co-founder of Ai4, the largest AI conference in North America. Michael walks through the pivot that changed everything—from an ambitious attempt to revive the 1893 Chicago World’s Fair to identifying AI as the defining opportunity of the decade before the boom. The conversation unpacks the realities of the event business, the discipline behind timing a market, and why surviving the compounding phase matters more than chasing early wins.
Why it matters: this episode is a blueprint for founders and investors alike—niche selection, execution, and resilience are what turn failed ideas into category-defining outcomes.
"You'll never do a whole lot unless you're brave enough to try."
Dolly Parton