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Why Serial Acquirers Outperform—and When Inexperience Costs the Most

In M&A, the economy sets the stage, but experience writes the script. A new analysis from BCG breaks down how acquirers perform depending on their track record and timing—and the results are telling.

October 29, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes

Over a 2-year relative TSR (Total Shareholder Return) window, serial acquirers consistently generate positive returns, whether the economy is booming or battered. In contrast, inexperienced acquirers destroy value, especially when conditions seem favorable.

In weak economies, the average serial acquirer ekes out +1.2% relative TSR. Inexperienced players? Down ‑2.4%. The gap is notable, but it gets worse. In strong economies, serial acquirers do slightly better—+1.7%—but inexperienced acquirers plummet to ‑8.2%.

This flips a common assumption on its head. Many operators assume that a hot market—ample credit, rising valuations, bullish sentiment—is the best time to “make your first move.” But the data says otherwise. Inexperienced acquirers lose the most when the economy is strong. In fact, they do more damage to shareholder value in good times than in bad.

Why this happens:

  • Boom cycles reward bad behavior. High asset prices, cheap debt, and competitive pressure drive inexperienced teams to overpay, chase frothy targets, and underestimate integration complexity.

  • Serial acquirers thrive on discipline. These firms typically have dedicated teams, tested playbooks, integration PMOs, and repeatable diligence processes. They’re not reacting to the cycle—they’re executing regardless of it.

  • In downturns, execution trumps narrative. Serial acquirers find bargains, act faster, and integrate better. Inexperienced teams, on the other hand, either sit on the sidelines or misjudge risk entirely.

For investors and strategics in consumer:

This should influence both your deal lens and your portfolio posture.

  • If you're evaluating a consumer company announcing an acquisition, ask: Is this their first rodeo? If so, the bar for execution should be much higher.

  • If you're building an M&A-driven growth strategy, don't wait for "ideal" conditions. Ideal for what? The data shows that strong economies are more punishing if you're inexperienced.

  • If you're backing platforms in fragmented categories (think wellness, specialty retail, food services), the premium should go to teams with demonstrated M&A repetition, not just sector knowledge.

Bottom line: In consumer markets, where scale and brand velocity matter, M&A can still be the most efficient lever. But only if it's done by pros.

Serial acquirers aren't just better at buying—they're better at absorbing, aligning, and compounding value. Inexperienced acquirers, especially in hot cycles, risk confusing expansion with execution. The market doesn't forgive that.

For dealmakers and investors alike, the message is simple: if you haven’t built the muscle, don’t flex in a bull market.