The Retail Trifecta: Holidays, Gift Cards, and Emerging Tech

Good morning, ! This week we’re diving into the expected holiday sales this season, Gift cards continue to be a predominant force during this season, emerging tech generating the next generation of E-Commerce.  

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TREND OF THE WEEK

Trillion-Dollar Season, Dollar-Store Mindset

Welcome to the age of $1T holiday sales—driven not by joy but by judicious consumers. This year’s spending may break records, but the growth rate is easing, down from 4.3% to 3.7–4.2%. The message? Caution is the new indulgence. Consumers are front-loading their shopping, leaning on loyalty points, resale sites, and yes, even AI shopping bots. But beneath the trillion-dollar ticker lies a widening divide: High-income households are powering most of the gains, while lower earners are scaling back. Santa’s got a split audience—value-driven strategists and budget-conscious minimalists—and the retail playbook is adjusting accordingly. (More)

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Disclosures

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ECOMMERCE

AI Moves From Feature to Infrastructure

AI in e-commerce has officially crossed the novelty threshold. With 53% of retailers already deploying AI — and 67% among app-based sellers — the tech is shifting from “optional upgrade” to mandatory infrastructure. Most of the action today comes from embedded AI inside existing platforms: dynamic product recommendations, targeted advertising, fraud detection, and automated customer-response tools. But the next wave is experience-driven. According to the chart, retailers are prioritizing AI-powered product recommendations (44%), real-time inventory updates (43%), and AR product visualization (32%) — all aimed at making digital shopping feel smarter and more intuitive. With 7 in 10 consumers asking for AI-enabled journeys, the bar is rising fast. The future isn’t about faster operations; it’s about personalization, transparency, and predicting what shoppers want before they even type it. (More)

DEAL OF THE WEEK

Hershey’s Salty Play

Hershey just went full circle—from chocolate kisses to organic kaleidoscope. The $11B candy behemoth has closed its acquisition of LesserEvil, the better-for-you snack brand known for turning coconut oil and Himalayan salt into household staples. Price tag? Reportedly $750M.

The goal: grow salty snacks from 10% to 20% of revenue by 2034. LesserEvil joins SkinnyPop, Pirate’s Booty, and Dot’s Pretzels in Hershey’s pantry of parent-approved indulgences. Importantly, Hershey isn’t planning to disrupt—LesserEvil’s leadership stays intact. The company’s reward? Scale, distribution, and access to more lunchboxes than they ever dreamed of. (More)

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BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE GIFT CARD CAFE

Gift Cards Hold Their Holiday Crown

Gift cards are once again proving they’re more than a fallback—they’re foundational. This holiday season, U.S. consumers are projected to spend $29.1B on gift cards, up from $28.6B in 2024. Nearly half of holiday shoppers (43%) plan to gift at least one, putting them just behind clothing (50%) and far ahead of toys (32%) .

The average consumer expects to buy 3–4 cards, spending $171.32 per person. Top categories? Restaurants (27%), followed by bank-issued (25%), department stores (25%), and coffee shops (20%). With 130.4M Americans shopping on Black Friday alone, the retail window for gift card acquisition is wide open—and extremely competitive.

Retailers and platforms would be wise to meet the moment: gift cards are increasingly driven by value, immediacy, and flexibility. As consumers chase “deals too good to pass up,” gift cards act as spend-now-save-later vehicles, especially appealing to time-crunched and promo-savvy shoppers.

Bottom line: As holiday spending is expected to cross $1T for the first time, gift cards aren’t just part of the mix—they’re a key lever for driving wallet share and extending brand relevance into Q1. (More)

CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

Consumers Click Before They Think

The 2024 consumer has officially made digital-first shopping a default setting. Categories from Clothing to Electronics posted big online gains, with apparel still the category king: 60% of shoppers bought clothing online, up from last year’s 45%. Beauty isn’t far behind, nearly doubling to 45%, thanks to personalized recs and influencer-powered trust. Groceries held strong at 45% as subscription habits and same-day delivery become muscle memory. Even Pet Supplies jumped to 32%, powered by auto-ship fever among America’s 87 million pet-owning households. And Electronics surged to 28% as upgrade cycles and smart-home creep continue. The theme: consumers aren’t just buying more online—they’re outsourcing decision-making to platforms that feel faster, simpler, and increasingly personalized. (More)

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