The Continued Rise of eCommerce in U.S. Retail Sales: Trends Through 2025

From just a sliver of total sales at the start of the century to nearly one-fifth of all retail transactions today, eCommerce has reshaped consumer behavior, logistics infrastructure, and competitive dynamics in the marketplace.

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, eCommerce sales in the first quarter of 2025 reached an estimated $275.8 billion (not adjusted), reflecting a 5.6% year-over-year growth from the first quarter of 2024. Total retail sales grew by a more modest 3.2% in the same period. eCommerce now accounts for 15.9% of total retail sales—a dramatic rise from less than 1% in 2000.

This upward trajectory is clearly illustrated in the chart above, which shows both the dollar value of eCommerce retail sales and their share of total U.S. retail sales from 2000 through 2025. After years of steady growth, the industry saw a sharp spike during the pandemic in 2020, with eCommerce peaking at over 16% of total retail sales. Although the share slightly dipped in subsequent years as physical retail rebounded, the long-term trend has continued upward, reaching 16.2% adjusted in Q1 2025.

Growth Patterns and Market Maturation

However, as shown in the second chart, growth rates have moderated over time. The early 2000s witnessed YoY growth rates of over 40%, driven by the novelty of online shopping and rapid internet adoption. Those figures gradually declined to low double-digits by the mid-2010s, reflecting a maturing market.

The only major resurgence occurred during the pandemic-driven digital acceleration in 2020, when YoY value growth surged past 45%, and YoY share growth exceeded 30%. Since then, the pace has normalized. In Q1 2025, YoY eCommerce value growth stands at 5.6%, and YoY share growth at just under 1%. These figures signal a market approaching saturation in certain sectors, especially as omnichannel strategies blur the lines between online and offline retail.

Underlying Trends Shaping the Future

The recent Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales Report from the Census Bureau indicates stability in eCommerce’s share, despite quarterly fluctuations. Seasonally adjusted, Q1 2025 eCommerce sales were $300.2 billion, nearly flat from Q4 2024 (±0.7%), while total retail rose 0.4%. This hints at a consolidation phase, where growth is steady but no longer explosive.

Meanwhile, global outlooks underscore a continued digital shift. eMarketer’s Worldwide Retail eCommerce Forecast predicts that by 2025, eCommerce will represent over 22% of total global retail sales. Emerging technologies like AI-powered personalization, same-day delivery logistics, and mobile-first shopping are expanding the ceiling of what’s possible—even in mature markets like the U.S.

Similarly, the ECDB’s whitepaper on global eCommerce trends highlights increased investment in cross-border shopping platforms and regional fulfillment networks as key enablers of growth. U.S. retailers are likely to benefit from this internationalization, particularly in categories like electronics, apparel, and beauty.

Looking Ahead

The data paints a picture of sustained but more measured growth for U.S. eCommerce. After two decades of exponential expansion, the market is settling into a phase of structural importance—no longer a novelty or side channel, but a core pillar of retail.

While future growth may come at a slower pace, it will likely be deeper, with improvements in customer experience, operational efficiency, and global accessibility driving gains. Retailers that embrace integrated omnichannel models and invest in digital infrastructure will be best positioned to capture the next wave of opportunity in the ever-evolving eCommerce landscape.

Sources & References

ECDB. (2025). Global eCommerce 2025. LINK

Emarketer. (2025). Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2025. https://www.emarketer.com/content/worldwide-retail-ecommerce-forecast-2025 

US Census Bureau. (2025). Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales Report. https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/pdf/ec_current.pdf 

US Census Bureau. (2025). Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales. https://www.census.gov/retail/ecommerce.html