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- The $25B Deal Shaking Up The Paint Industry — Akzo Nobel x Axalta
The $25B Deal Shaking Up The Paint Industry — Akzo Nobel x Axalta
Akzo Nobel's massive Axalta acquisition reshapes a global sector. Plus: Gift cards drive holiday profits and value shopping spreads beyond Black Friday.
Good morning, ! This week we’re diving into the top shopping events of 2025, Over 40% of annual gift cards sales happen between November and December, Akzo Nobel is acquiring Axaltain in a share deal valuing Axalta at $25B.
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TREND OF THE WEEK
Value Shopping Spreads Beyond Black Friday
Black Friday remains the top shopping event for 2025, with 62% of consumers participating, slightly higher than last year. But shoppers are diversifying when they hunt for deals. Cyber Monday interest dipped modestly (47% to 45%), while Prime Day inched up to 39%, reflecting growing comfort with mid-year promotions.
The biggest shift is rising interest in end-of-season sales, jumping from 28% to 33% as consumers look for deeper discounts throughout the year. Friends & Family events also saw a lift to 24%.
Overall, shoppers are still value-driven, but their attention is spreading across a wider set of sales moments, giving retailers more opportunities to capture spending beyond the holiday peak. (More)
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ECOMMERCE
Europe’s eCommerce Crown Gets Heavier
Europe isn’t just sipping espressos — it’s chugging cross-border eCommerce revenues. The region extended its lead from $268B in 2019 to $504B in 2024, a neat 88% jump. While Asia flexed with 124% growth (to $343B), and the Americas reached $224B, neither closed the gap. The kicker? Europe’s head start just keeps compounding.
The big picture: Europe’s early dominance has given it compounding advantages — infrastructure, regulations, and shopper habits all stacked in its favor. Meanwhile, Australia & Oceania saw a modest 74% lift, proving once again that kangaroos don’t shop online as much as we’d hoped. (More)
DEAL OF THE WEEK
Akzo Nobel and Axalta: A $25B Paint Merger Years in the Making
After years of failed courtships and industry speculation, Akzo Nobel is acquiring Axalta Coating Systems in a share deal valuing Axalta at €7.9B ($9.2B equity; $25B EV). The merger will create a coatings powerhouse with global reach across 160+ countries, spanning B2B and consumer segments—from auto powder coatings to brands like Dulux and Polyfilla.
Under the terms, Axalta shareholders get 0.6539 Akzo shares per share, leaving Akzo shareholders with 55% of the combined entity, which will relocate its listing to NYSE while keeping HQs in Amsterdam and Philadelphia.
Beyond scale, the pitch is efficiency: $600M in run-rate synergies, 90% expected within 3 years. Both firms have been hit by slowing demand and macro pressures, but the combination—long whispered by investors—now “makes too much sense to ignore,” per Akzo CEO Gregoire Poux-Guillaume.
For investors, this is more than a defensive move. It’s a strategic realignment that tightens grip on both industrial coatings and premium consumer paint—amid rising consolidation across the sector. (More)
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Hotels Bet on Breakage—and It’s Working
With room bookings softening amid economic uncertainty, hotels are turning to a new high-margin revenue tool: gift cards and experience vouchers. The economics are compelling. Gift cards provide immediate cash flow, generate $613 average order value, and benefit from breakage rates around 47%—meaning nearly half go unredeemed, turning into pure profit.
One luxury hotel pulled in seven figures in gift card revenue during the 2023 holiday window alone. Another made $100K+ in December 2024 via an omnichannel push. Over 40% of annual gift card sales happen in November–December, and 20% in just two days: Dec 24–26. Seasonality is predictable; redemptions then carry hotels into Q1 with increased foot traffic and upsell potential.
Experience gifting is the draw. Spa retreats, gourmet dinners, wellness packages—no need to create new services, just package existing ones. And corporate buyers are jumping in: 23% of gift card sales come from businesses rewarding employees or clients.
For hotels, gift cards aren’t a gimmick—they’re a capital strategy. And the quiet adoption? Likely to get louder. (More)
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
Inflation’s Grip Tightens—Quietly
Inflation may no longer dominate the news cycle, but it still dominates the checkout line. A full 49% of shoppers say Inflation is their top decision-maker—basically the CFO of household spending. Right behind it: Deals & Discounts at 46%, cementing consumers’ shift from brand loyalty to bargain loyalty. Budget Constraints (35%) remain a structural brake, pushing families to delay purchases and re-rank priorities. And the once-mighty influence of Consumer Reviews, Influencer Videos, and even Inventory Shortages has collapsed—because when prices are up double digits over three years, TikTok isn’t moving anyone’s cart. The message is blunt: value is the only status symbol that matters, and consumers are optimizing every dollar like they’re running procurement for a Fortune 500. (More)
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