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- Digital Wallets Hit 53%, Cards Slide to 20%
Digital Wallets Hit 53%, Cards Slide to 20%
Biometric taps are eclipsing plastic swipes, propelling mobile wallets to dominate more than half of global online spend.
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Good morning, ! This week we’re diving into China’s dominance in social commerce, how gaming gift cards are quietly becoming a $62B digital currency, AI’s deep disruption of the consumer value chain, and the retail real estate bet that says physical stores aren’t dead—they’re evolving.
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DATA DIVE
Your Wallet Isn’t Leather Anymore
Digital wallets now account for a whopping 53% of global e-commerce payments—roughly $3.6T in 2024—and are projected to hit 65% by 2030. Credit cards? Down to 20% and falling. Leading the charge: Asia Pacific, where wallets make up 74% of online payments. But even the U.S. (39%) and Europe (33%) are catching up fast. Why? Convenience, speed, and biometric security. From super apps in India to Apple Pay dominance in the U.S., wallets are becoming central to how consumers shop, save, and spend. Your wallet didn’t just go digital—it became your new bank.
TREND OF THE WEEK
AI Is Eating the Consumer Value Chain
AI isn’t just a sidekick anymore—it’s restructuring the entire operating model. In PwC’s 2024 data, 43% of consumer brands report cost savings, 42% see productivity gains, and 37% are unlocking new revenue streams. From dynamic pricing to predictive inventory, AI is weaving itself into every process. But here’s the catch: success isn’t about tech adoption—it’s about business model reinvention. The winners are combining AI automation with human insight, shifting from workflows to AI-orchestrated systems. The goal? Less grind, more growth. (More)
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ECOMMERCE
China’s Social Commerce Reigns Supreme—U.S. Platforms Play Catch-Up
The 2025 leaderboard for social commerce revenue is dominated by China—Douyin ($237.6B), WeChat ($181.3B), and Little Red Book ($112.5B) collectively generate more than 5x the revenue of Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube combined.
By contrast, the U.S.-based platforms are underperforming:
Facebook leads the Western pack at $67B
Instagram clocks in at $42.8B
YouTube, despite being video-first, trails at $27.7B
Notably, TikTok, despite its global influence, is pulling in just $7.4B—a stark reminder of how monetization strategies lag outside China.
Why it matters: Social commerce is becoming the front line of digital retail. China’s platforms seamlessly integrate discovery, payment, and fulfillment—functioning more like Shopify than Instagram. Meanwhile, Western players still rely on off-platform transactions and fragmented purchase flows.
For brands and investors, this chart isn't just about platform rankings—it's a call to study the Chinese model more seriously. The infrastructure is the difference, not the influence.
DEAL OF THE WEEK
Bain Capital and 11North Bet $212M on the Return of Retail Real Estate
Bain Capital Real Estate and 11North Partners have acquired a trio of open-air lifestyle centers in Oklahoma City for $212M, marking a bold play on necessity-driven retail. The 40-acre portfolio—anchored by Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s and 97% leased—includes Nichols Hills Plaza, Classen Curve, and The Triangle.
Why it matters: While retail REITs tread cautiously, Bain and 11North are leaning into high-performing physical retail with national tenants like Lululemon, Sephora, and Warby Parker. The submarket’s demographics (affluent, growing, and proximate to major employers) offer defensive characteristics and traffic resilience.
This isn’t a one-off: it’s the first major move of a 2024 joint venture focused on “essential retail” across North America. In an era dominated by e-commerce narratives, this deal signals renewed institutional confidence in localized, open-air formats—particularly in second-tier metros with first-class tenants.
Bottom line: Physical retail isn’t dead. It’s consolidating around convenience, quality tenants, and strategic operators with patient capital. (More)
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Gaming Gift Cards: The $62.5B Trojan Horse of Platform Monetization
The global gaming gift card market is on pace to triple by 2032, from $21.8B in 2025 to $62.6B, growing at a 16.4% CAGR. What looks like a simple gifting mechanism is fast becoming a central tool in monetization and user acquisition across gaming ecosystems.
Digital gift cards dominate the space—offering instant, platform-agnostic access to virtual goods, subscriptions, and microtransactions. North America still leads in volume, but Asia Pacific is the fastest-growing region, thanks to rising mobile gaming penetration and broader smartphone adoption.
Why it matters: Gift cards aren’t just about birthdays anymore. They’re a frictionless gateway to in-game economies, a low-risk on-ramp for Gen Z consumers without credit cards, and a strategic loyalty lever for publishers.
Watch for further disruption: blockchain-backed gift cards with embedded NFTs, gamified loyalty redemptions, and cross-border expansion through mobile wallets. In a world of platform lock-in and identity-driven spend, gift cards are becoming the stickiest kind of digital currency. (More)
CONSUMER TECH
AI Phones Are Hot—But Not (Yet) a Reason to Buy
AI-powered smartphones are climbing the value charts, especially in developed Asia, where they make up 62% of sales value. But here’s the catch: only 7.8% of global buyers in Q3 2024 chose a phone because it had AI functionality. In Latin America, AI phone adoption is still just 14%. The price tag (~$1,000) doesn’t help, but neither does the lack of compelling use cases. For now, AI is a feature that sells after the purchase, not before. For brands and retailers, the opportunity isn’t tech—it’s education and storytelling. (More)
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
The Trust Gap in a Scroll-First World
Consumers are more digitally connected than ever—but when it comes to making a purchase, they still trust people over platforms. According to McKinsey, 50% of US respondents say friends or family are their most trusted source of brand recommendations. Meanwhile, social media ranks dead last, with 36% calling it their least trusted channel. That’s the paradox: while digital drives discovery, trust is still analog. The platforms may deliver the impressions, but word-of-mouth closes the sale. For brands, the mandate is clear—bridge digital scale with human credibility. (More)
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