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- 40% Drop In Consumer Confidence, Tech Hits $537B, and Soho House Goes Private
40% Drop In Consumer Confidence, Tech Hits $537B, and Soho House Goes Private
Sub-60 sentiment + 1938-era tariffs + 6.5% inflation expectations = thinner pricing power—plan for value-led offers, tighter inventory turns, and higher promo intensity.
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Good morning, ! This week we’re diving into the consumer`s sentiment during uncertain macroeconomic environments, Soho House says goodbye to Wall Street with a $2.7B take-private deal,consumer tech sales are projected to hit a record $537B in 2025, and Furniture e-commerce is booming hitting 32.9% penetration rate.
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— The Consumer150 Team
DATA DIVE
Consumer Confidence Is the Casualty
Consumer sentiment has taken a nosedive—and it’s not just inflation’s fault.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has cratered to below 60, a 40% drop from just a few years ago. Meanwhile, OECD countries have seen sentiment stabilize closer to the long-term average. So what’s dragging down American optimism? Try a triple whammy: sky-high tariffs (from 2.5% to 14.5%, the highest since 1938), inflation expectations doubling to 6.5%, and economic policy whiplash. The result: a public reluctant to spend and a business sector that’s bracing for turbulence. Confidence hasn’t flatlined, but it’s definitely in the ICU.
TREND OF THE WEEK
$537B Tech Party Meets a Tariff Tax
CES 2025 kicked off with good news: consumer tech sales are projected to hit a record $537B in 2025. That’s more spending on gadgets, services, and entertainment tech than ever before. But the fine print? Proposed Trump tariffs could erase the party gains, slashing consumer purchasing power by up to $143B. Think fewer iPhones in pockets, fewer consoles in living rooms, fewer laptops on desks. The CTA’s message is clear: tariffs act as a tax on U.S. consumers and businesses, stifling the deflationary magic tech has historically provided. The sector remains the engine of U.S. innovation, but trade policy may decide if that engine hums — or sputters. (More)
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ECOMMERCE
Furniture’s Click-and-Ship Future
Furniture e-commerce in the U.S. is quietly pulling a Costco—slow and steady, but now a major player. The market penetration rate has jumped from 23.8% in 2020 to 32.9% in 2025, and it’s not stopping there. It’s not just Wayfair and Amazon anymore—traditional brands are finally getting serious about DTC logistics and AR-enabled browsing. With furniture’s historical resistance to online shopping fading fast, we’re seeing one of retail’s most stubborn verticals embrace eCommerce like never before. TLDR: If you’re not shipping sofas and nightstands with free returns, you’re about to get left behind.
DEAL OF THE WEEK
Private, Please: Soho House's $2.7B Escape Plan
Soho House is saying goodbye to Wall Street—and hello to MCR Hotels—in a $2.7B take-private deal. Shareholders get $9/share, a 17.8% premium, while the club’s celebrity glitter gets a fresh coat of Ashton Kutcher, who’s joining the board. Also sliding into a new seat: Neil Thomson as CFO. But Soho's biggest challenge? Convincing members it's still exclusive while chasing global scale. Expansion has raised eyebrows (and not in a good way), especially as consumer hospitality spending remains shaky. The deal includes $850M in hybrid capital from Apollo Global—because in 2025, debt-equity cocktails are in vogue. Control stays with founder Nick Jones and investor Ron Burkle. Now, all eyes on whether Soho's retreat from the public spotlight leads to a better party—or just a better spreadsheet. (More)
TOGETHER WITH MODE
You won’t find this stock on the Nasdaq
That means you’re still early.
Shares of Mode Mobile have soared over 2,900% higher since their first private offering in 2021. But they have even bigger plans in store, reserving the Nasdaq ticker $MODE. Even better? You don’t have to wait to invest.
Here’s why you want in: Mode’s completely rethought the smartphone by letting their users earn and save money simply by using their phones. Safe to say, it’s been a huge success. They’ve already reached 45 million customers, made $75M+ in revenue, and topped Deloitte’s “Fastest Growing Software Company” list.
Now, Mode’s leveraging partnerships with Best Buy and Walmart to reach even more of the world’s 7B smartphone users. It’s a $1T market opportunity in total.
And you can be part of that growth, pre-IPO. You can even get up to 20% bonus stock as an early-stage investor. But don’t wait.
Gift Cards = Backpacks, Sneakers & Dignity
Boston CASA’s Back-to-School Drive is live through September 8, and their ask is simple: gift cards, not notebooks. Foster youth often show up to school with less than the bare minimum—making gift cards from Old Navy, Target, DSW, and Kohl’s more impactful than any pencil case. For teens aging out of care and entering college or independent living, a $25 Walmart or Marshalls card can mean groceries or bedsheets. Last year, Boston CASA raised just $1,200 worth of gift cards. This year, let’s blow past that—because nothing says “you belong here” like a first-day outfit you picked out yourself. (More)
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
The Loyalty Mirage
Turns out loyalty programs aren’t buying much…loyalty. 53% of consumers regularly switch brands, even when they’re members. The biggest driver? Experimentation — 70% globally (and 75% of Gen Z) swap brands just to try something new. Another killer: 65% say membership perks failed to improve their shopping experience, making all that data-sharing feel like a one-way street. Other triggers: loyalty exclusivity (60%), price-value perception (49%), influencer buzz (46%), and sustainability snubs (39%). For brands, the takeaway is blunt: personalization and real value aren’t “nice-to-haves” — they’re the price of admission. (More)
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