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- $250M in Gift Cards Stolen | 70% Stick With Meal Kits – What Loyalty Data Reveals
$250M in Gift Cards Stolen | 70% Stick With Meal Kits – What Loyalty Data Reveals
Consumer confidence slips, e-commerce races ahead, and loyalty plays tug-of-war with fraud.
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Good morning, ! This week we’re exploring the consumer sentiment in the U.S, retail e-commerce sales by product category, gift card fraud statistics and consumer loyalty based on product category.
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TREND OF THE WEEK
Confidence Slips, Ambivalence Rises
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. is becoming more uncertain—and less optimistic.
According to McKinsey data, the share of consumers who feel optimistic about U.S. economic conditions has declined steadily: from 46% in February to 44% in May, and 41% in August. The pessimistic cohort has remained relatively stable (18% → 25% → 21%), but the biggest shift is in the “mixed” sentiment group, which jumped from 31% in May to 38% in August, the highest level this year.
This isn’t a full-blown confidence crash—it’s a slide into indecision. Rising living costs, geopolitical noise, and soft landing uncertainty may all be fueling the drift away from clear sentiment.
Why it matters:
A more “mixed” consumer is harder to read—and harder to sell to. In this climate, clear value propositions and confidence-building messaging will outperform splashy or speculative bets. For investors and operators alike, brands in essentials, value retail, and financial services may gain defensively, while discretionary categories could face muted conversion as shoppers hesitate. (More)
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ECOMMERCE
Food First, Fashion Follows
E-commerce’s fastest horse isn’t fashion, it’s food. Online grocery and meal delivery are on a tear with a projected 24.8% CAGR, trailed closely by beverages (22%). For comparison, fashion (11.6%) looks like the safe blue-chip, while electronics (6.4%) are basically the bonds in this portfolio. The pandemic created lasting consumer habits, and it turns out people prefer clicking “add to cart” for chicken breasts over braving fluorescent-lit aisles. The takeaway: if you’re a retailer, groceries are digital gold, personal care is a reliable middleweight, and fashion is holding steady. Everything else? Still relevant, but not setting the growth charts on fire. (More)
DEAL OF THE WEEK
AI Hardware Hype Gets Real
Nothing just locked down a $200M Series C led by Tiger Global, pushing its valuation to $1.3B and setting the stage for its AI-first device debut in 2026. With backing from Qualcomm Ventures and India’s Nikhil Kamath, the Carl Pei–founded startup is going all-in on a vision where smartphones become AI’s delivery mechanism. That said, their current footprint is tiny: <1% global share, though India looks promising at 2%.
The real play here? Using slick industrial design and community funding to position Nothing as the cool alternative to legacy tech giants. It’s early, but they’ve shipped 5.1M units and crossed $1B in sales. The AI pivot could make or break the hype. (More)
TOGETHER WITH SPEEDEON DATA
Digital audiences so good, even the Grinch would convert
Unwrap high performing ad campaigns this holiday season. Speedeon’s Holiday Audience Guide puts 100+ proven shopper segments at your fingertips—from gift card lovers to luxury buyers. Available in LiveRamp and instantly ready to activate across Meta, Google, CTV and more. Get audiences that jingle all the way to ROI.
Drained Before It’s Given
Many Gift cards are being hijacked before they ever leave the rack. In 2024 alone, $250M vanished into thin air—well, into scammers’ wallets—via gift card fraud, per the FTC. The preferred play? Card draining: fraudsters peel back packaging, copy card info, and quietly wait for unsuspecting buyers to load them with funds. Then? Boom—zero balance. Despite bipartisan attempts to legislate packaging reform (hello, Maryland), retailers are pushing back, citing operational burden. And while older adults remain prime targets, even seasoned shoppers are falling victim. What’s at stake for merchants? A $4.61 loss for every dollar stolen, driven by chargebacks, brand damage, and soaring operational costs. Not to mention a 364% surge in related losses over the past few years. This isn’t just petty theft—it’s a full-on retail security crisis in disguise. (More)
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
Loyalty is Served Hot
Turns out the most loyal customers aren’t chasing sneakers—they’re sticking with meal kits. Research shows that 70% of consumers stay faithful to their subscription box dinners, proving that convenience really does cook. Right behind are luxury products (65%), where exclusivity keeps shoppers locked in. Everyday staples like personal care (62%), groceries (62%), and health & beauty (59%) also hold strong, reinforcing the idea that self-care and consistency breed loyalty. On the flip side, furniture & DIY (37%) sit at the bottom—hardly shocking when most people aren’t impulse-buying a new sofa every month. The signal: loyalty follows frequency and emotion, not just price tags. (More)
"Success seems to be connected with action. Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don't quit."
Conrad Hilton